As Ramadan continues across the UAE, many residents are already wondering when Eid Al Fitr 2026 will begin. According to astronomers, the celebration is most likely to fall on Friday, March 20, as the Shawwal crescent moon is expected to be impossible to sight on March 18.
The prediction comes from the Abu Dhabi-based International Astronomy Centre, which monitors lunar visibility worldwide. While the final confirmation will still come from the UAE’s official moon-sighting committee, early astronomical calculations already provide a strong indication of when Eid could start.
If the forecast holds true, Muslims across the UAE will complete 30 days of Ramadan before celebrating Eid.
Why the Shawwal Crescent May Not Be Visible on March 18
The key reason behind the expected delay lies in the moon’s position in the sky.
Astronomers explained that on Wednesday, March 18, the moon will set before the sun, which makes it impossible for the crescent to be seen after sunset. At the same time, the astronomical conjunction — when the new moon forms — will occur only after sunset, meaning the crescent will not yet be visible.
Countries that began Ramadan on February 18, including several across the region, will attempt to sight the moon on March 18. But because of the astronomical conditions, visibility is not expected.
As a result, these countries will likely complete the full 30 days of Ramadan, making Friday, March 20 the first day of Eid Al Fitr.
This early projection helps residents and businesses across the UAE begin planning for the upcoming Eid break.
Moon Sighting on March 19 May Still Be Difficult
Some countries started Ramadan a day later, on February 19, which means their moon-sighting attempt will take place on Thursday, March 19.
Even then, astronomers say visibility will remain extremely challenging in many regions.
In several eastern parts of the world, the crescent will likely be impossible to see even with telescopes. In West Asia and parts of Africa, it may only be visible using telescopes under very clear skies.
In places like Western Europe and Western Africa, spotting the crescent with the naked eye will be extremely difficult.
Interestingly, astronomers say the best chance of naked-eye visibility could be in parts of North America, where the crescent may appear more clearly after sunset.
Because of these varying conditions around the world, most countries are still expected to declare March 20 as Eid Al Fitr.
Astronomical Conditions in Major Cities
Experts also shared detailed observations for several cities to explain the visibility challenges.
In Jakarta, the moon will set about 10 minutes after sunset and will only be around 11 hours old, making it impossible to observe even through telescopes.
In Abu Dhabi, the moon will set around 29 minutes after sunset, with an age of roughly 14 hours. Under exceptionally clear atmospheric conditions, it might be detected with telescopes, but naked-eye sighting remains highly unlikely.
Similar conditions will be seen in other Middle Eastern cities:
- Riyadh: Moon sets about 30 minutes after sunset
- Amman and Jerusalem: Around 36 minutes after sunset
- Cairo: Around 35 minutes after sunset
Even in these locations, astronomers say telescopes and very clear skies would be required for any chance of sighting the crescent.
Visibility may slightly improve in cities further west such as Rabat and Amsterdam, but naked-eye observation would still be extremely difficult.
Experts note that crescent visibility depends on several factors — including the moon’s age, altitude, and distance from the sun — not just how long it remains in the sky after sunset.
Why Some Countries May Celebrate Eid on March 21
Although astronomical predictions strongly point to Friday, March 20, the final Eid date sometimes differs between countries.
This happens because Islamic countries follow different approaches when confirming the moon sighting.
Some nations rely strictly on local naked-eye sightings, while others accept telescope observations or global reports.
If the crescent is not confirmed in certain regions on March 19, those countries may complete another day of Ramadan and celebrate Eid on Saturday, March 21 instead.
Such variations are not unusual and occur occasionally due to geographical differences in moon visibility.
What UAE Residents Can Expect
For residents in the UAE, the prediction offers an early glimpse of the likely Eid timeline.
However, the official Eid Al Fitr date will only be confirmed after the UAE moon-sighting committee meets near the end of Ramadan.
If the astronomical forecast proves correct, the expected timeline will be:
- Ramadan completes 30 days
- Thursday, March 19 becomes the final day of fasting
- Friday, March 20 marks the start of Eid Al Fitr
Across Dubai and the UAE, Eid is typically marked with special morning prayers, family gatherings, festive meals, and charity.
The city itself also transforms during this time. Streets light up with Ramadan decorations, malls host festive activities, and landmarks like Downtown Dubai become popular spots for evening gatherings.
Early astronomical forecasts suggest Eid Al Fitr 2026 in the UAE will most likely fall on Friday, March 20, as the Shawwal crescent is expected to be impossible to sight on March 18.
Still, the final announcement will depend on the official moon-sighting committee in the UAE, which will confirm the date closer to the end of Ramadan.
Until then, residents across Dubai and the wider UAE continue observing the holy month while looking forward to the festive days ahead.
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