Can algorithms help decide when the UAE skies open? That question shaped discussions at the AI for Weather Prediction: Advances, Challenges & Future Outlook summit in Abu Dhabi, where international specialists and local officials debated how artificial intelligence could reshape rainfall enhancement.
The UAE has long invested in cloud seeding, a process that helps trigger rainfall in arid conditions. Now, experts believe AI could raise the success rate by analysing data faster and recommending the best timing and locations for operations.
Sharper Insights Through Data
Artificial intelligence thrives on information. Using inputs from satellites, ground sensors, and radar, AI systems can detect subtle patterns in the atmosphere. This provides forecasters with early signals of cloud development, rainfall potentia,l and storm behaviour.
According to Monica Youngman from the US National Weather Service, AI is most effective for predictions within a three-to-seven-day window. “For shorter or longer ranges, physics-based models remain strong,” she said. Still, AI offers an added layer of detail that can complement traditional approaches.
For the UAE, where the margin for effective rainfall is narrow, this technology could prove invaluable.
Smarter Cloud Seeding
At present, specialists rely on manual monitoring to decide when aircraft should release flares into clouds. But the short lifespan of clouds means opportunities can disappear quickly.
“AI can help by guiding forecasters to the right spot at the right time,” said Omar Al Yazeedi, Deputy Director General of the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM). By identifying the best targets, AI could make every flight more efficient and raise the odds of successful rainfall.
This level of precision is particularly important as the UAE balances its water security strategy with its sustainability agenda.
Hurdles in Using AI
While AI shows promise, experts noted that it is not a complete replacement for conventional models. Certain conditions, such as thunderstorms, remain difficult to predict with precision.
Ian Lisk, Chair of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) SERCOM, highlighted that AI faces similar limitations to physics-based systems. “Resolution issues and gaps in training data are challenges, particularly with a changing climate,” he said.
This means AI needs consistent, high-quality data before it can become a dependable tool across all forecasting needs.
Building a Global Standard
The World Meteorological Organisation is working to ensure that countries with fewer resources also benefit from advances in AI. Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary General of WMO, stressed that not all nations are ready to use AI operationally.
“Many members are still far from adopting AI in their daily practice,” she said. “We see it as our responsibility to make sure the benefits are shared as the technology develops.”
For the UAE, which already invests heavily in climate innovation, these advancements reinforce its position as a regional leader in weather research and rainfall enhancement.
The discussions in Abu Dhabi made one thing clear: AI is not a magic button to control the skies, but it could transform how forecasters manage scarce rainfall opportunities.
By combining traditional science with AI systems, the UAE could gain sharper forecasts, more effective cloud seeding and better long-term planning for its water needs.
As the technology matures, the idea of AI-guided rainfall may shift from conference halls to everyday reality in the Emirates.
Source: Khaleej Times
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